Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center

Belarusian Economy in mid-2019: the Aftermath of Recovery Growth Period

By mid-2019, a period of recovery growth has been accomplished and the national economy enters a new stage of development. This policy paper sums up and analyzes the results of the recovery growth period. The paper argues that the results are contradictory. On the one hand, the quality of economic policy has become much better, and Belarus has achieved macrostability according to numerous indicators. Moreover, the country has displayed the highest output growth rate during last 8 years, real incomes grew significantly, and some distortions in well-being were smoothed. On the other hand, the growth was still too modest, which did not allow closing the well-being gap vs. other comparable countries. Furthermore, relatively high output growth rate is likely to have become temporary phenomenon, while for suppressing adverse social trends it should be persistently higher. The resistance and soundness of macrostability elements and financial stability are somehow doubtful. Hence, the paper concludes that the achievements of current economic policy denude institutional weaknesses of the national economy. Correspondingly, poor growth potential is still a core challenge for the national economy, which is reflected in numerous current adverse trends.

The Policy Paper is available only in Russian.