Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center

Policy Papers

Perspective and Challenges for Belarus’ Economy in the Medium-Run (2018-2020)

This policy paper deals with the perspectives of the national economy development in 2018-2020. The study emphasizes that fluctuations around equilibrium growth rate is the most likely scenario. The study uses the estimate of 2.5% of equilibrium growth rate for Belarus, which is a compromise among different approaches and methodologies. The scenario of higher growth may become possible due to positive external shocks. However, even in case of permanently strengthening external environment, the growth rate of the national economy is still likely to be unsustainable.

Belarusian Economy in 2017: Catch-up Growth vs. the Burden of Pending Structural Weaknesses

This policy paper deals with Belarusian macroeconomic situation in 2017. The study admits that a long period of adjustment to new institutional environment, which was associated with structural slowdown, has ended in 2017 and catch-up growth began. This growth mainly stemmed from favorable external environment. The policies enhancing price and external stability also contributed into growth. In 2017, Belarus has displayed historical (or 10 year) records in inflation rate and current account balance. This allowed quitting from restrained economic policies thus emancipating domestic demand.

Estimation of the number of employable population unemployed in the economy and regional economic development of Belarus in 2007-2015

This study estimates the number of the working-age population, unemployed in the economy, in the Belarusian regions for 2007-2015 covered by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus from 2 April 2015 №3 "On the prevention of social dependency". The paper analyzes the relationship between the number of this group of population and regional economic development of Belarus. The results show that the presence of the working-age population, unemployed in the economy, is mostly an economic phenomenon related to the level of economic development of a certain region, district or city of Belarus.

Institutions and economic development

The quality of institutions is a major factor in the success or failure of nations and a fundamental source of differences in per capita income between countries. This work is devoted to the analysis of the definition of institutions and studies their impact on the economic development of developed and developing countries. The state of institutional development in Belarus for 1996-2015 is assessed, and the directions of further development of institutions based on the experience of other countries are considered.

Trust, institutions and economic growth in Belarus

Trust in the society promotes cooperative behavior outside inner circle and can be associated with socio-economic development. This paper considers the current level and dynamics of trust in Belarusian society, the interaction of trust and the quality of institutions, and the role of trust in achieving economic growth. A number of mechanisms promoting the development of trust are presented.

Barriers and drivers of women's entrepreneurship in Belarus

We have conducted the number of interviews with female entrepreneurs and top managers of Belarusian companies.

Foreign Investment: Measures to Improve the Investment Climate

In 2016, potential investors’ interest in Belarus continued to decline. The problem of access to financing in the form of loans was growing, affecting the possibility of floating sovereign Eurobonds internationally. There were signs that the government finally realized that the country needed a better image to foster investment and issued a number of bills to facilitate raising funds.

Anatomy of Belarusian JSCs

We do not know about: how effective are Belarusian enterprises, what is the share of state enterprises in the economy, what is the difference between private and state enterprises, what is the distribution of labor, capital and materials among firms. This work is an attempt to answer these questions using the data on JSCs.

Causes and Features of Economic Downturn in Belarus: the Role of Structural Factors

This work is devoted to the analysis of output downturn in Belarus in 2015. It is shown that economic downturn is not the consequence of only cyclical hesitations, but also of structural compression. Moreover, the structural component of recession in 2016 began to dominate.

Restructuring of Belarusian SOEs

This work suggests steps for reforming of Belarusian SOEs in order to find new sources of growth. Major mechanisms of efficiency increase are introduction and improvement of corporate governance, privatization/ attraction of investors, and bankrupcy and liquidation.

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