Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center
 Александр Ващилко

Effects of Trade Wars on Belarus

This paper looks at the effects of the trade wars that followed 2014 events in Ukraine
on Belarus. The estimation of the model predicts the increase in the tarif revenue collected by Belarus. Because of ban on imports, the tari¤ revenue of Russian Federation declines. Being a part of Customs Union, Belarus needs to participate in the tarif revenue redistribution. The need to participate in the tarif revenue redistribution and the decline in the tarif revenue collected by Russian Federation lead to the decrease in the welfare of Belarus. To avoid this decrease, Belarus should argue for the modi…cation of the redistribution schedule.