Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center

Measuring fiscal multipliers for the Belarusian economy

This study is devoted to the theoretical concepts of fiscal multipliers and their assessment for the Belarusian economy, in particular the magnitudes of these multipliers for the revenue and spending parts of the budget of Belarus. The assessment of fiscal multipliers is carried out taking into account the impact of the monetary policy on the fiscal policy, including in the model the refinancing rate. The resulting estimates of government tax and spending multipliers are generally consistent with similar estimates for economies in transition. The analysis shows that in order to improve the effectiveness of the fiscal policy, it is necessary to move from a predominantly pro-cyclical application of fiscal incentives to counter-cyclical one. Since the value of the spending multiplier is low, it is required to improve the efficiency of budget spending and the coordination of the monetary and fiscal policy.

The Working Paper is available only in Russian.