Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center

Working Papers

 Igor LivshitsJames MacGee, Michele Tertilt

The Democratization of Credit and the Rise in Consumer Bankruptcies

Financial innovations are a common explanation for the rise in credit card debt and bankruptcies. To evaluate this story, the authors develop a simple model that incorporates two key frictions: asymmetric information about borrowers’ risk of default and a fixed cost of developing each contract lenders offer.

Belarusian Economic Growth Decomposition

Belarus experienced rapid economic growth in the 2000's, which abruptly came to halt after 2008. The authors found that the major source of growth was capital accumulation, while growth in total factor productivity (TFP) was modest. Moreover, government interventions and controls on the capital market contributed to misallocation which lowered aggregate productivity. Lack of productivity growth led to the loss of competitiveness on the international markets. Comparisons of TFP in Belarus with the Czech Republic and Sweden shows that comparative advantages of Belarus are concentrated in the natural-resource based industries, and TFP gap with the Czech Republic is not closing over time.

Screening as a Unified Theory of Delinquency, Renegotiation, and Bankruptcy

The authors propose a parsimonious model with adverse selection where delinquency, renegotiation, and bankruptcy all occur in equilibrium as a result of a simple screening mechanism.

 Dzmitry Kruk, Kiryl Haiduk

The Outcome of Directed Lending in Belarus: Mitigating Recession or Dampening Long-Run Growth?

This study analyzes the effects of directed lending upon total factor productivity and GDP growth in Belarus over the period of 2000–2012.

Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence in Belarus

This paper address the issue of assessing inflation persistence in Belarus using quarterly seasonally adjusted data over 1996–2011.

 Aleksandr Vashchilko

Households' Expenditure Patterns in Belarus

This study estimates the equivalence scale for Belarus, while directly accounting for household size economies of scale. For this purposes, the modication of methodology in Lancaster and Ray (1998) was used. The poverty levels for vulnerable social groups are estimated using the house holds equivalized total expenditures. In addition, the comparison of Engel curves for several expenditure categories is conducted for different years.

Smoking and Obesity Revisited: Evidence from Belarus

Using a large nationally representative survey from Belarus, the authors estimate the effect of the number of cigarettes smoked per day on individuals’ body mass index (BMI) and on the probability of being overweight and obese.

Choice of Becoming Self-Employed in Belarus: Impact of Monetary Gains

The paper investigates that question using 2006-2010 Belarusian Household Survey on Incomes and Expenditures and is based on the multinomial logit choice model.

Convergence Analysis of Russia and Belarus Economies in Conditions of Monetary Integration

In this paper, the author distinguish the main ideas of the theory of Optimal Currency Area (OCA).

 Mykhaylo Salnykov, Alexander Gedranovich

Productivity Analysis of Belarusian Higher Education System

In this paper the authors explore the issue of the measurement of productivity in the context of higher education.