Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center

Research

One of the main BEROC goals is generating and spreading of new academic and policy knowledge on problems, tendencies and development of Belarusian economy. Academic and policy research aimed at the development of strategy encouraging economic growth and quality improvement of economic policy in Belarus.

Public Expenditure Indices: Application to Belarus

Public Sector Performance Index (PSP) and Public Sector Efficiency Index (PSE) are the most accessible ways to estimate the comparative efficiency of public finance on the macroeconomic level. We construct PSP and PSE indices for Belarus and find that the efficiency of public expenditures in Belarus is high compared to other post-Soviet economies.

Effects of Population Ageing on the Pension System in Belarus

Belarus currently has a relatively generous pay-as-you-go pension system, but population aging coupled with recent problems with economic growth will soon make it unsustainable. We build a rich OLG model of Belarusian economy, which shows that without reform the Pension Fund will run into persistent and growing deficit, which will reach 9 per cent of GDP by 2055. We also compute the fiscal projections of several parametric pension reforms.

Recent Developments in Consumer Credit and Default Literature

This survey discusses recent contributions to the quantitative literature on unsecured consumer debt and default, and some ongoing challenges for the literature.

Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus

The paper analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of imports of intermediate and capital goods on Belarusian economic growth for the period 2005 to 2015 taking into account large upward and downward exchange rate adjustments of Belarusian ruble. The empirical findings from the autoregressive distributed lag regressions indicate that there are negative effects of imports of intermediate goods on economic growth both in the short and long run. Second, contrary to the theory devaluation of the Belarusian ruble negatively influences both GDP growth and imports of intermediate goods in Belarus. Third, the results of Toda–Yamamoto causality test shows that GDP growth Granger causes growth in imports and exports, supporting the hypothesis that trade is more a consequence of the rapid economic growth in Belarus than a cause. Fourth, the findings from forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) confirm results obtained from TY causality test and additionally emphasize that changes in imports in Belarus are mostly driven by changes in exports especially in the long-run. Finally, the findings from VDC also indicate that the main contributor to growth fluctuations are domestic capital investments.

Gender and Innovativeness of the Enterprise: the Case of Transition Countries

Little knowledge exists on difference in innovation behavior of men and women leading the SMEs in transition countries. This paper estimates whether there is a gender gap in SMEs innovation actions. Results show that propensity to innovate is higher among female owners and this finding preserves for 5 measures of innovativeness. Thus, female involvement in business might be beneficial for the innovative sustainable development of economy. Estimation of the gap in performance of implemented innovations did not reveal any strong prevailing gender in terms of efficiency.

Belarusian Business Cycle in Cross-country Comparison: Industry and Aggregate Data

The paper documents stylized facts about Belarusian business cycle based on aggregate and industry data and puts it into an international content. First, the aggregate fluctuations in Belarus are mostly driven by the wedge, which resembles a time-varying investment tax. Second, the fluctuation in relative prices of an industry is typically more important than volume fluctuation. Furthermore, the impact of price fluctuations is partially o ffset by volume fluctuation. Third, the aggregate cycle is smoother than the industry-speci fic one. In particular, agriculture, construction and fi nance experience a very sharp drop in a recession.

FREE Policy Brief: Does Gender Matter for the Innovativeness of SMEs?

Is Market Timing Good for Shareholders?

We challenge the view that equity market timing always bene ts shareholders. By distinguishing the e ect of a rm's equity decisions from the e ect of mispricing itself, we show that market timing can decrease shareholder value. Additionally, the timing of equity sales has a more negative e ect on existing shareholders than the timing of share repurchases. Our theory can be used to infer rms' maximization objectives from their observed market timing strategies. We argue that the popularity of stock buybacks and the low frequency of seasoned equity o erings are consistent with managers maximizing current shareholder value.

Unemployment insurance as a tool of social protection

This paper analyzes the international experience of functioning unemployment insurance systems and possibility of their application in Belarus.

Maternity Support Programs in Belarus

This paper analyzes the effects of child-care leave and maternity capital policies, and provides recommendations for Belarus.

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